Tornado Week: Advancing tornado warning time
Twenty five years ago the U.S. averaged a three-minute tornado warning lead time.
Today, it’s just less than 15 minutes.
The dreaded red box, it’s all too familiar this time of year in Oklahoma.
Right now the average lead time is 14 minutes but imagine if you had 30 or 60 minutes.
David Stens-Rude of the National Severe Storms Laboratory plans to find out if that is possible with the “warn-on-forecast.”
“Hopefully we can give forecast information before the storm is severe,” he said.
Current tornado warnings are issued based on a storm already on radar.
The warn-on forecast aims to accurately predict a storm before a cloud even forms.
But don’t expect to see this anytime soon.
“Our projections based on current events is that within 10 to 15 years, affordable computers will be fast enough that we can do this,” Stens-Rude said.
